Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.059481 0.067421 0.075569 0.084522 0.094056 0.103875 0.114726
2025-07-20 0.044338 0.055742 0.068092 0.082317 0.098110 0.114984 0.134253
2025-07-27 0.037827 0.051631 0.067213 0.085771 0.106968 0.130155 0.157180
2025-08-03 0.031674 0.046824 0.064602 0.086419 0.111947 0.140421 0.174153
2025-08-10 0.026934 0.042990 0.062523 0.087138 0.116542 0.149871 0.189878
2025-08-17 0.022527 0.038981 0.059752 0.086611 0.119326 0.156961 0.202676
2025-08-24 0.017655 0.033725 0.054914 0.083122 0.118213 0.159216 0.209636
2025-08-31 0.014021 0.029675 0.051233 0.080730 0.118137 0.162458 0.217545
2025-09-07 0.011793 0.027366 0.049632 0.080794 0.120925 0.168992 0.229227
2025-09-14 0.010295 0.025974 0.049141 0.082188 0.125287 0.177361 0.243048
2025-09-21 0.009688 0.025945 0.050521 0.086030 0.132725 0.189467 0.261344
2025-09-28 0.008253 0.024308 0.049451 0.086479 0.135771 0.196164 0.273130
2025-10-05 0.008358 0.025568 0.052892 0.093425 0.147627 0.214238 0.299317
2025-10-12 0.006256 0.022437 0.049590 0.091019 0.147384 0.217446 0.307674
2025-10-19 0.005686 0.022182 0.050645 0.094667 0.155046 0.230497 0.328030
2025-10-26 0.004645 0.020721 0.049673 0.095351 0.158743 0.238556 0.342282
2025-11-02 0.003770 0.019409 0.048813 0.096112 0.162483 0.246637 0.356545
2025-11-09 0.002849 0.017695 0.047129 0.095554 0.164372 0.252320 0.367817
2025-11-16 0.001758 0.015001 0.043475 0.091861 0.161842 0.252244 0.371848
2025-11-23 0.001052 0.012948 0.040708 0.089326 0.160765 0.253933 0.377997
2025-11-30 0.000702 0.011892 0.039678 0.089395 0.163251 0.260195 0.389850
2025-12-07 0.000506 0.011338 0.039564 0.090872 0.167697 0.269005 0.404918
2025-12-14 0.000464 0.011585 0.041063 0.094939 0.175825 0.282656 0.426127